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Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Petah Tikva Prediction— Israel - Ligat Ha'al

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 17:00

Ironi Tiberias

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Hapoel Petah Tikva

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-16.3%0-24.5%0-32.1%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.6%1-110.7%1-27.6%1-33.5%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-19.1%2-26.4%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.6%3-15.1%3-23.6%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.2%4+-22.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 37.9% 2.64 +21.4%

Draw 24.5% 30.3% 3.30 -11.5%

Away win 29.5% 41.0% 2.44 -16.8%

Over 2.5 59.9% 54.6% 1.83 +9.6%

Over 3.5 36.8% 32.3% 3.10 +14.1%

BTTS 61.3% 60.6% 1.65 +1.1%

Home O1.5 48.8% 41.7% 2.40 +17.1%

Away O1.5 41.2% 44.4% 2.25 -7.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.3%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–0 6.4%

#5 1–0✓ 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ironi Tiberias1.7

Hapoel Petah Tikva1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

IRONI TIBERIAS · PPG 1.62

HAPOEL PETAH TIKVA · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ironi Tiberias (H) 46.0%

ODDS 2.64 · IMPLIED 37.9% EV +21.4%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.5%

Hapoel Petah Tikva (A) 29.5%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV -16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ironi Tiberias face Hapoel Petah Tikva in Israel - Ligat Ha'al on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ironi Tiberias a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Hapoel Petah Tikva 30%, so Ironi Tiberias are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Ironi Tiberias and 1.4 for Hapoel Petah Tikva (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ironi Tiberias are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.29 for Hapoel Petah Tikva. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +17.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Petah Tikva Prediction— Israel - Ligat Ha'al

Match Preview & Prediction

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