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FC Thun vs Servette FC Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Sunday, August 23, 2026, 15:00

FC Thun

PPG 1.52 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLW ·

UPCOMING

Servette FC

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWD ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-14.2%0-23.8%0-32.4%0-4+1.7%1 1-04.4%1-18.1%1-27.5%1-34.6%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.3%2-17.9%2-27.3%2-34.5%2-4+3.2%3 3-02.8%3-15.1%3-24.7%3-32.9%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.9%4+-23.6%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.8% 36.4% 2.75 +9.4%

Draw 21.9% 28.6% 3.50 -14.0%

Away win 38.3% 44.4% 2.25 -13.8%

Over 2.5 67.3% 63.7% 1.57 +5.7%

Over 3.5 45.0% 42.0% 2.38 +7.1%

BTTS 63.2% 69.4% 1.44 -9.0%

Home O1.5 54.9% 47.6% 2.10 +15.3%

Away O1.5 55.2% 52.4% 1.91 +5.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 29%

ROI 19.9%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.2%

H 40% / xG 1.9-1.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 1–2 7.5%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 3–1 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Thun1.9

Servette FC1.9

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FC THUN · PPG 1.52

SERVETTE FC · PPG 1.15

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.10 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Thun (H) 39.8%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +9.4%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -14.0%

Servette FC (A) 38.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Thun face Servette FC in Switzerland - Super League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Thun a 40% chance, the draw 22% and Servette FC 38%, so FC Thun are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for FC Thun and 1.9 for Servette FC (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Thun are averaging 1.52 points per game versus 1.15 for Servette FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +21.5%.

FC Thun vs Servette FC Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Switzerland - Super League Predictions