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Paris SG vs Nantes Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Regular Season - 26 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 17:00

Paris SG

PPG 2.43 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Nantes

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 89.5% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-11.1%0-20.3%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-07.6%1-13.7%1-20.9%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-012.5%2-16.0%2-21.5%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.6%3-16.6%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-025.7%4+-112.4%4+-23.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 89.5% 85.5% 1.17 +4.7%

Draw 7.7% 14.3% 7.00 -46.1%

Away win 2.8% 7.7% 13.00 -63.6%

Over 2.5 72.6% 76.9% 1.30 -5.6%

Over 3.5 52.0% 54.6% 1.83 -4.8%

BTTS 36.8% 55.6% 1.80 -33.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 84%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob36.8%

H 90% / xG 3.3-0.5 / O2.5 73% / NoBTTS 37%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0✓ 13.6%

#2 2–0 12.5%

#3 4–0 11.2%

#4 1–0 7.6%

#5 5–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paris SG3.3

Nantes0.5

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PARIS SG · PPG 2.43

NANTES · PPG 0.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.43), Away POOR (0.79) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Paris SG (H) 89.5%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV +4.7%

Draw 7.7%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV -46.1%

Nantes (A) 2.8%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV -63.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paris SG face Nantes in France - Ligue 1 on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paris SG a 90% chance, the draw 8% and Nantes 3%, so Paris SG are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Paris SG and 0.5 for Nantes (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paris SG are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 0.79 for Nantes. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.7%. This match finished 3-0.

Paris SG vs Nantes Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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