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Excelsior W vs NAC Breda W Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie Women

Regular Season - 18 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 16:45

Excelsior W

PPG 0.13 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

NAC Breda W

PPG 0.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-14.5%0-23.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-06.3%1-19.1%1-26.5%1-33.1%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.4%2-19.2%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.4%3-16.3%3-24.5%3-32.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-15.1%4+-23.7%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.5% — — —

Draw 21.4% — — —

Away win 27.1% — — —

Over 2.5 67.4% — — —

Over 3.5 45.7% — — —

BTTS 66.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob66.3%

H 52% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.2%

#2 1–1 9.1%

#3 2–2 6.6%

#4 1–2 6.5%

#5 2–0✓ 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Excelsior W2.0

NAC Breda W1.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.7%

Form & verdict PPG

EXCELSIOR W · PPG 0.13

NAC BREDA W · PPG 0.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.13), Away POOR (0.13)

Win probability 1X2

Excelsior W (H) 51.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

NAC Breda W (A) 27.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Excelsior W face NAC Breda W in Netherlands - Eredivisie Women on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Excelsior W a 52% chance, the draw 21% and NAC Breda W 27%, so Excelsior W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Excelsior W and 1.4 for NAC Breda W (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Excelsior W are averaging 0.13 points per game versus 0.13 for NAC Breda W. This match finished 2-0.

Excelsior W vs NAC Breda W Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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