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Gwangju FC vs Incheon United Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 10:30

Gwangju FC

PPG 0.58 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLDL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Incheon United

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLD

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+17.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-111.4%0-213.4%0-310.5%0-4+10.8%1 1-03.3%1-17.7%1-29.0%1-37.1%1-4+7.3%2 2-01.1%2-12.6%2-23.1%2-32.4%2-4+2.5%3 3-00.2%3-10.6%3-20.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.2% 22.7% 4.40 -25.1%

Draw 19.6% 29.4% 3.40 -20.0%

Away win 67.1% 57.1% 1.75 +17.4%

Over 2.5 59.7% 44.4% 2.25 +34.3%

Over 3.5 36.6% 25.0% 4.00 +46.4%

BTTS 50.0% 48.8% 2.05 +2.5%

Home O1.5 30.6% 23.1% 4.33 +32.5%

Away O1.5 65.4% 47.6% 2.10 +37.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -23.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob50.0%

A 67% / xG 0.7-2.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 13.4%

#2 0–3 10.5%

#3 1–1 7.7%

#4 0–1✓ 11.4%

#5 1–2 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gwangju FC0.7

Incheon United2.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GWANGJU FC · PPG 0.58

INCHEON UNITED · PPG 1.60

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -1.68 for Away, form 0.58 vs 1.60

Win probability 1X2

Gwangju FC (H) 13.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -25.1%

Draw 19.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -20.0%

Incheon United (A) 67.1%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +17.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gwangju FC face Incheon United in South Korea - K League 1 on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gwangju FC a 13% chance, the draw 20% and Incheon United 67%, so Incheon United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Gwangju FC and 2.4 for Incheon United (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gwangju FC are averaging 0.58 points per game versus 1.60 for Incheon United. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +46.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Gwangju FC vs Incheon United Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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