Today / South Korea - K League 1 / Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC

Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 10:30

Daejeon Citizen

PPG 0.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Gangwon FC

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 49.8% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.3%0-115.8%0-210.2%0-34.4%0-4+1.9%1 1-010.0%1-112.8%1-28.2%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-04.0%2-15.2%2-23.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.1%3-11.4%3-20.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.8% 40.0% 2.50 -23.0%

Draw 26.5% 33.3% 3.00 -12.3%

Away win 42.8% 35.7% 2.80 +19.8%

Over 2.5 50.1% 47.6% 2.10 +5.2%

Over 3.5 28.1% 26.7% 3.75 +3.2%

BTTS 49.8% 55.6% 1.80 -10.4%

Home O1.5 30.6% 38.2% 2.62 -19.8%

Away O1.5 37.3% 36.4% 2.75 +2.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -23.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob49.8%

A 43% / xG 0.8-1.3 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.8%

#2 1–1 12.8%

#3 0–0 12.3%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 0–2 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Daejeon Citizen0.8

Gangwon FC1.3

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DAEJEON CITIZEN · PPG 0.73

GANGWON FC · PPG 1.58

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.47, combined xG 2.10 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Daejeon Citizen (H) 30.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -23.0%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.3%

Gangwon FC (A) 42.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +19.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Daejeon Citizen face Gangwon FC in South Korea - K League 1 on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Daejeon Citizen a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Gangwon FC 43%, so Gangwon FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Daejeon Citizen and 1.3 for Gangwon FC (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Daejeon Citizen are averaging 0.73 points per game versus 1.58 for Gangwon FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +14.7%. This match finished 3-0.

Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More South Korea - K League 1 Predictions