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San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 02:30

San Jose Earthquakes

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLD

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Minnesota United FC

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLWD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-14.5%0-22.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.2%1-19.5%1-24.4%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.4%3-16.9%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-15.9%4+-22.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% 44.4% 2.25 +21.5%

Draw 22.5% 28.6% 3.50 -12.8%

Away win 23.5% 36.4% 2.75 -21.2%

Over 2.5 59.7% 67.6% 1.48 -11.6%

Over 3.5 36.6% 47.6% 2.10 -23.1%

BTTS 54.7% 71.4% 1.40 -23.4%

Home O1.5 59.6% 55.6% 1.80 +7.3%

Away O1.5 25.3% 50.0% 2.00 -29.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.7%

H 54% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–0 10.7%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 1–2 4.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Jose Earthquakes2.1

Minnesota United FC0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES · PPG 1.40

MINNESOTA UNITED FC · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.17 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

San Jose Earthquakes (H) 54.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +21.5%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -12.8%

Minnesota United FC (A) 23.5%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -21.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Jose Earthquakes face Minnesota United FC in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Jose Earthquakes a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Minnesota United FC 24%, so San Jose Earthquakes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for San Jose Earthquakes and 0.9 for Minnesota United FC (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Jose Earthquakes are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.40 for Minnesota United FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.9%. This match finished 1-5.

San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - MLS Predictions