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San Diego vs Colorado Rapids Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 02:30

San Diego

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Colorado Rapids

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-15.3%0-23.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.6%1-110.2%1-26.0%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.3%3-16.3%3-23.7%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.7%4+-22.8%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.4% 51.3% 1.95 -7.6%

Draw 23.5% 28.6% 3.50 -10.7%

Away win 29.1% 30.3% 3.30 -2.4%

Over 2.5 59.7% 65.4% 1.53 -8.7%

Over 3.5 36.6% 44.4% 2.25 -17.6%

BTTS 54.7% 66.7% 1.50 -17.9%

Home O1.5 54.9% 59.9% 1.67 -8.3%

Away O1.5 35.9% 42.0% 2.38 -14.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.7%

H 47% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 1–2 6.0%

#4 2–0 8.3%

#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Diego1.9

Colorado Rapids1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN DIEGO · PPG 1.50

COLORADO RAPIDS · PPG 0.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

San Diego (H) 47.4%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -7.6%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.7%

Colorado Rapids (A) 29.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Diego face Colorado Rapids in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Diego a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Colorado Rapids 29%, so San Diego are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for San Diego and 1.2 for Colorado Rapids (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Diego are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.70 for Colorado Rapids. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +0.1%. This match finished 3-0.

San Diego vs Colorado Rapids Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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