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Los Angeles FC vs Portland Timbers Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 02:30

Los Angeles FC

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Portland Timbers

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-13.5%0-21.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.3%1-18.2%1-24.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.7%2-19.7%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.6%3-17.6%3-23.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-07.8%4+-17.8%4+-23.9%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.1% 61.7% 1.62 -10.7%

Draw 21.8% 22.7% 4.40 -2.5%

Away win 23.0% 23.8% 4.20 -2.0%

Over 2.5 62.6% 71.4% 1.40 -12.4%

Over 3.5 39.4% 50.0% 2.00 -21.2%

BTTS 54.7% 69.4% 1.44 -21.2%

Home O1.5 65.1% 69.4% 1.44 -6.3%

Away O1.5 30.2% 40.0% 2.50 -24.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.7%

H 55% / xG 2.4-1.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 8.2%

#2 2–0 9.7%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 1–2 4.1%

#5 3–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Los Angeles FC2.4

Portland Timbers1.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LOS ANGELES FC · PPG 2.00

PORTLAND TIMBERS · PPG 0.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.36 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Los Angeles FC (H) 55.1%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -10.7%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -2.5%

Portland Timbers (A) 23.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -2.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Los Angeles FC face Portland Timbers in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Los Angeles FC a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Portland Timbers 23%, so Los Angeles FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Los Angeles FC and 1.0 for Portland Timbers (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Los Angeles FC are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.70 for Portland Timbers. This match finished 1-1.

Los Angeles FC vs Portland Timbers Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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