Today / USA - MLS / Austin vs Philadelphia Union

Austin vs Philadelphia Union Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 01:00

Austin

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Philadelphia Union

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-14.6%0-23.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.6%1-19.2%1-26.5%1-33.1%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.6%2-19.3%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.4%3-16.3%3-24.4%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-15.0%4+-23.5%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% 30.3% 3.30 +57.7%

Draw 22.7% 28.6% 3.50 -12.3%

Away win 29.6% 50.0% 2.00 -24.5%

Over 2.5 64.6% 62.5% 1.60 +3.4%

Over 3.5 43.5% 42.0% 2.38 +3.5%

BTTS 63.2% 65.4% 1.53 -3.3%

Home O1.5 56.1% 40.0% 2.50 +40.3%

Away O1.5 41.2% 57.8% 1.73 -28.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.2%

H 48% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 6.5%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Austin2.0

Philadelphia Union1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AUSTIN · PPG 1.56

PHILADELPHIA UNION · PPG 0.70

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Austin (H) 47.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +57.7%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -12.3%

Philadelphia Union (A) 29.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -24.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Austin face Philadelphia Union in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Austin a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Philadelphia Union 30%, so Austin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Austin and 1.4 for Philadelphia Union (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Austin are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.70 for Philadelphia Union. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +95.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Austin vs Philadelphia Union Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - MLS Predictions