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St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 00:30

St. Louis City

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Houston Dynamo

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-17.6%0-24.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.2%1-112.0%1-26.4%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.4%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.6%3-14.9%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.8%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 50.0% 2.00 -7.8%

Draw 25.4% 30.3% 3.30 -9.7%

Away win 28.5% 30.3% 3.30 -3.6%

Over 2.5 50.9% 57.1% 1.75 -10.9%

Over 3.5 30.9% 36.4% 2.75 -15.0%

BTTS 53.0% 60.6% 1.65 -12.6%

Home O1.5 46.4% 50.0% 2.00 -7.2%

Away O1.5 34.4% 38.2% 2.62 -9.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 11.2%

#3 2–1✓ 9.4%

#4 2–0 8.8%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Louis City1.6

Houston Dynamo1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.9% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. LOUIS CITY · PPG 1.89

HOUSTON DYNAMO · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

St. Louis City (H) 46.1%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -7.8%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -9.7%

Houston Dynamo (A) 28.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Louis City face Houston Dynamo in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Louis City a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Houston Dynamo 28%, so St. Louis City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for St. Louis City and 1.1 for Houston Dynamo (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Louis City are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.60 for Houston Dynamo. This match finished 2-1.

St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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