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Nashville SC vs Columbus Crew Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 00:30

Nashville SC

PPG 2.80 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Columbus Crew

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 69.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a clear edge.

+14.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-12.1%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-07.9%1-16.0%1-22.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.1%2-18.4%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.4%3-17.9%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-014.6%4+-111.0%4+-24.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.3% 60.6% 1.65 +14.3%

Draw 16.5% 25.6% 3.90 -21.4%

Away win 14.2% 22.2% 4.50 -21.7%

Over 2.5 65.0% 58.8% 1.70 +10.5%

Over 3.5 43.5% 38.2% 2.62 +14.0%

BTTS 54.1% 59.9% 1.67 -9.7%

Home O1.5 67.4% 59.9% 1.67 +12.6%

Away O1.5 17.9% 29.4% 3.40 -23.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.1%

H 69% / xG 2.8-0.8 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.1%

#2 3–0 10.4%

#3 1–1 6.0%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 3–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nashville SC2.8

Columbus Crew0.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NASHVILLE SC · PPG 2.80

COLUMBUS CREW · PPG 0.60

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.05 for Home, form 2.80 vs 0.60 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Nashville SC (H) 69.3%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV +14.3%

Draw 16.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -21.4%

Columbus Crew (A) 14.2%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -21.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nashville SC face Columbus Crew in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nashville SC a 69% chance, the draw 17% and Columbus Crew 14%, so Nashville SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Nashville SC and 0.8 for Columbus Crew (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nashville SC are averaging 2.80 points per game versus 0.60 for Columbus Crew. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +38.3%. This match finished 3-2.

Nashville SC vs Columbus Crew Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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