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Newells Old Boys vs Banfield Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 00:00

Newells Old Boys

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWWD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Banfield

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-19.9%0-25.2%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.3%1-113.0%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.1%2-18.5%2-24.5%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.5%3-13.7%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.8% 45.5% 2.20 -1.4%

Draw 26.4% 33.3% 3.00 -12.5%

Away win 28.7% 30.3% 3.30 -3.2%

Over 2.5 50.1% 41.7% 2.40 +20.2%

Over 3.5 28.1% 22.2% 4.50 +15.9%

BTTS 53.0% 51.3% 1.95 +3.4%

Home O1.5 37.8% 40.0% 2.50 -5.5%

Away O1.5 33.3% 26.7% 3.75 +24.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 134 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 45% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 0–0 9.4%

#4 2–1✓ 8.5%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Newells Old Boys1.3

Banfield1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NEWELLS OLD BOYS · PPG 1.27

BANFIELD · PPG 0.73

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.26, combined xG 2.37 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Newells Old Boys (H) 44.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -1.4%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.5%

Banfield (A) 28.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -3.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Newells Old Boys face Banfield in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newells Old Boys a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Banfield 29%, so Newells Old Boys are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Newells Old Boys and 1.1 for Banfield (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newells Old Boys are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.73 for Banfield. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +25.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Newells Old Boys vs Banfield Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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