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Charlotte vs DC United Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 23:30

Charlotte

PPG 1.91 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

DC United

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-15.0%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.5%1-19.9%1-25.2%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.3%3-16.6%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-15.3%4+-22.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 54.3% 1.84 -1.4%

Draw 22.6% 26.7% 3.75 -9.2%

Away win 23.8% 26.3% 3.80 -5.7%

Over 2.5 61.6% 60.6% 1.65 +1.6%

Over 3.5 38.0% 37.7% 2.65 +0.7%

BTTS 60.3% 63.7% 1.57 -5.3%

Home O1.5 55.5% 57.8% 1.73 -4.0%

Away O1.5 32.9% 37.0% 2.70 -11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.3%

H 54% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 1–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charlotte2.0

DC United1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.6% · O3.5 PROB 38.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLOTTE · PPG 1.91

DC UNITED · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Charlotte (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -1.4%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.2%

DC United (A) 23.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -5.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Charlotte face DC United in USA - MLS on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charlotte a 54% chance, the draw 23% and DC United 24%, so Charlotte are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Charlotte and 1.0 for DC United (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charlotte are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 1.20 for DC United. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.6%. This match finished 3-1.

Charlotte vs DC United Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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