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Orlando City SC vs Real Salt Lake Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 23:30

Orlando City SC

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Real Salt Lake

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-14.0%0-23.5%0-32.1%0-4+1.4%1 1-04.6%1-18.1%1-27.1%1-34.2%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.6%2-18.2%2-27.2%2-34.2%2-4+2.8%3 3-03.1%3-15.5%3-24.9%3-32.9%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-14.4%4+-23.9%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 43.9% 2.28 +1.0%

Draw 21.8% 25.3% 3.95 -8.3%

Away win 33.9% 37.7% 2.65 -10.2%

Over 2.5 67.3% 72.5% 1.38 -7.1%

Over 3.5 43.5% 51.3% 1.95 -15.2%

BTTS 63.2% 75.2% 1.33 -15.9%

Home O1.5 56.4% 59.9% 1.67 -5.8%

Away O1.5 48.5% 55.6% 1.80 -12.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.2%

H 44% / xG 2.0-1.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 2–1✓ 8.2%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orlando City SC2.0

Real Salt Lake1.8

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ORLANDO CITY SC · PPG 1.56

REAL SALT LAKE · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.26 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Orlando City SC (H) 44.3%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV +1.0%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -8.3%

Real Salt Lake (A) 33.9%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orlando City SC face Real Salt Lake in USA - MLS on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orlando City SC a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Real Salt Lake 34%, so Orlando City SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Orlando City SC and 1.8 for Real Salt Lake (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orlando City SC are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.67 for Real Salt Lake. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +2.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Orlando City SC vs Real Salt Lake Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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