Today / USA - MLS / New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire

New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 23:30

New York Red Bulls

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Chicago Fire

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.2% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-15.7%0-25.2%0-33.2%0-4+2.3%1 1-05.1%1-19.3%1-28.6%1-35.3%1-4+3.7%2 2-04.1%2-17.6%2-27.0%2-34.3%2-4+3.0%3 3-02.3%3-14.1%3-23.8%3-32.3%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.4%4+-22.2%4+-31.4%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.3% 38.8% 2.58 -8.9%

Draw 22.6% 24.4% 4.10 -4.4%

Away win 42.0% 43.9% 2.28 -4.2%

Over 2.5 64.6% 72.5% 1.38 -10.8%

Over 3.5 43.5% 51.3% 1.95 -15.2%

BTTS 63.2% 75.2% 1.33 -15.9%

Home O1.5 47.4% 54.6% 1.83 -13.3%

Away O1.5 54.6% 60.6% 1.65 -9.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.2%

A 42% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.3%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 7.6%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 1–3 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New York Red Bulls1.6

Chicago Fire1.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW YORK RED BULLS · PPG 1.40

CHICAGO FIRE · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

New York Red Bulls (H) 35.3%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV -8.9%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -4.4%

Chicago Fire (A) 42.0%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

New York Red Bulls face Chicago Fire in USA - MLS on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New York Red Bulls a 35% chance, the draw 23% and Chicago Fire 42%, so Chicago Fire are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for New York Red Bulls and 1.8 for Chicago Fire (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New York Red Bulls are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.38 for Chicago Fire. This match finished 1-1.

New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - MLS Predictions