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CF Montreal vs Los Angeles Galaxy Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 23:30

CF Montreal

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Los Angeles Galaxy

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-18.0%0-24.5%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.8%1-112.1%1-26.8%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.2%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.2%3-14.7%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 47.2% 2.12 -3.5%

Draw 26.2% 27.0% 3.70 -1.8%

Away win 28.4% 32.8% 3.05 -8.0%

Over 2.5 50.3% 63.7% 1.57 -21.0%

Over 3.5 30.9% 41.7% 2.40 -25.8%

BTTS 53.0% 67.6% 1.48 -21.6%

Home O1.5 40.2% 55.6% 1.80 -27.6%

Away O1.5 35.6% 45.5% 2.20 -21.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 2–0 8.2%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CF Montreal1.5

Los Angeles Galaxy1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CF MONTREAL · PPG 1.30

LOS ANGELES GALAXY · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.40 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

CF Montreal (H) 45.5%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -3.5%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -1.8%

Los Angeles Galaxy (A) 28.4%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

CF Montreal face Los Angeles Galaxy in USA - MLS on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CF Montreal a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Los Angeles Galaxy 28%, so CF Montreal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for CF Montreal and 1.1 for Los Angeles Galaxy (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CF Montreal are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.20 for Los Angeles Galaxy. This match finished 2-2.

CF Montreal vs Los Angeles Galaxy Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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