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FC Cincinnati vs Seattle Sounders Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 23:30

FC Cincinnati

PPG 2.11 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Seattle Sounders

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-13.7%0-22.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-06.8%1-18.4%1-25.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.8%2-19.6%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.9%3-17.2%3-24.5%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-17.0%4+-24.3%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.0% 54.3% 1.84 +1.2%

Draw 21.9% 24.4% 4.10 -6.1%

Away win 23.1% 28.6% 3.50 -11.5%

Over 2.5 63.6% 72.5% 1.38 -12.2%

Over 3.5 42.3% 51.3% 1.95 -17.5%

BTTS 61.3% 73.5% 1.36 -16.6%

Home O1.5 65.1% 66.7% 1.50 -2.4%

Away O1.5 37.3% 47.6% 2.10 -21.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.3%

H 55% / xG 2.3-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 8.4%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 3–1 7.2%

#5 1–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Cincinnati2.3

Seattle Sounders1.2

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 42.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FC CINCINNATI · PPG 2.11

SEATTLE SOUNDERS · PPG 1.10

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.04 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Cincinnati (H) 55.0%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV +1.2%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -6.1%

Seattle Sounders (A) 23.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Cincinnati face Seattle Sounders in USA - MLS on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Cincinnati a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Seattle Sounders 23%, so FC Cincinnati are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for FC Cincinnati and 1.2 for Seattle Sounders (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Cincinnati are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.10 for Seattle Sounders. This match finished 1-1.

FC Cincinnati vs Seattle Sounders Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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