Today / USA - MLS / Inter Miami vs Toronto FC

Inter Miami vs Toronto FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 23:30

Inter Miami

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Toronto FC

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 70.2% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.0%0-21.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-04.4%1-15.7%1-23.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.3%2-18.2%2-25.4%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.0%3-17.9%3-25.2%3-32.3%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-08.7%4+-111.5%4+-27.5%4+-33.3%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.5% 70.9% 1.41 -17.5%

Draw 17.0% 18.5% 5.40 -4.9%

Away win 24.5% 17.4% 5.75 +24.5%

Over 2.5 70.2% 78.1% 1.28 -10.1%

Over 3.5 48.1% 58.8% 1.70 -18.2%

BTTS 63.2% 71.4% 1.40 -11.5%

Home O1.5 78.4% 80.0% 1.25 -2.0%

Away O1.5 40.7% 39.2% 2.55 +3.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.2%

H 58% / xG 2.9-1.3 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.2%

#2 3–1 7.9%

#3 1–2✓ 3.8%

#4 1–1 5.7%

#5 2–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Inter Miami2.9

Toronto FC1.3

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.1%

Form & verdict PPG

INTER MIAMI · PPG 1.62

TORONTO FC · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.56 for Home, form 1.62 vs 0.67 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Inter Miami (H) 58.5%

ODDS 1.41 · IMPLIED 70.9% EV -17.5%

Draw 17.0%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -4.9%

Toronto FC (A) 24.5%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +24.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Inter Miami face Toronto FC in USA - MLS on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Inter Miami a 59% chance, the draw 17% and Toronto FC 25%, so Inter Miami are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Inter Miami and 1.3 for Toronto FC (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Inter Miami are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.67 for Toronto FC. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +3.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Inter Miami vs Toronto FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - MLS Predictions