Today / Brazil - Serie C / Santa Cruz vs Caxias

Santa Cruz vs Caxias Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 22:30

Santa Cruz

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Caxias

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-023.1%0-114.0%0-24.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.8%1-112.0%1-23.7%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.5%2-15.2%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.4%3-11.5%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.6% 43.5% 2.30 -11.2%

Draw 33.8% 34.7% 2.88 -2.7%

Away win 27.7% 32.3% 3.10 -8.5%

Over 2.5 34.5% 41.7% 2.40 -17.2%

Over 3.5 18.2% 22.2% 4.50 -10.9%

BTTS 43.6% 51.3% 1.95 -15.0%

Home O1.5 30.6% 38.5% 2.60 -20.4%

Away O1.5 16.5% 30.8% 3.25 -27.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 116 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -13.0%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob43.6%

H 39% / xG 0.9-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 23.1%

#2 1–0 19.8%

#3 0–1 14.0%

#4 1–1 12.0%

#5 2–0✓ 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santa Cruz0.9

Caxias0.6

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.5% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTA CRUZ · PPG 1.25

CAXIAS · PPG 1.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.25, combined xG 1.47 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Santa Cruz (H) 38.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -11.2%

Draw 33.8%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -2.7%

Caxias (A) 27.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santa Cruz face Caxias in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santa Cruz a 39% chance, the draw 34% and Caxias 28%, so Santa Cruz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Santa Cruz and 0.6 for Caxias (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santa Cruz are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.12 for Caxias. This match finished 2-0.

Santa Cruz vs Caxias Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie C Predictions