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Confiança vs Anápolis Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 22:30

Confiança

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Anápolis

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.9%0-111.8%0-23.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-019.0%1-112.5%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.1%2-16.7%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.6%3-12.4%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.4% 54.1% 1.85 -21.6%

Draw 31.4% 32.3% 3.10 -2.7%

Away win 26.2% 24.4% 4.10 +4.5%

Over 2.5 38.0% 45.5% 2.20 -16.4%

Over 3.5 19.3% 23.8% 4.20 -11.4%

BTTS 45.3% 51.3% 1.95 -11.7%

Home O1.5 30.6% 47.6% 2.10 -35.7%

Away O1.5 17.9% 26.7% 3.75 -19.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 116 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -13.0%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.3%

H 42% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.9%

#2 1–0 19.0%

#3 0–1✓ 11.8%

#4 1–1 12.5%

#5 2–0 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Confiança1.1

Anápolis0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 19.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CONFIANÇA · PPG 1.33

ANÁPOLIS · PPG 0.44

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.40, combined xG 1.72 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Confiança (H) 42.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -21.6%

Draw 31.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -2.7%

Anápolis (A) 26.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Confiança face Anápolis in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Confiança a 42% chance, the draw 31% and Anápolis 26%, so Confiança are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Confiança and 0.7 for Anápolis (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Confiança are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.44 for Anápolis. This match finished 0-1.

Confiança vs Anápolis Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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