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Argentino Quilmes vs Villa San Carlos Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 31 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 22:00

Argentino Quilmes

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Villa San Carlos

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-111.8%0-25.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.1%1-113.3%1-25.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.5%2-17.5%2-23.3%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.2%3-12.8%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.5% 46.5% 2.15 -17.2%

Draw 32.8% 32.3% 3.10 +1.7%

Away win 28.7% 31.3% 3.20 -4.9%

Over 2.5 38.0% 42.6% 2.35 -10.7%

Over 3.5 19.6% 23.1% 4.33 -9.1%

BTTS 47.6% 51.3% 1.95 -7.2%

Home O1.5 30.6% 40.8% 2.45 -25.0%

Away O1.5 22.8% 30.3% 3.30 -14.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.6%

D 33% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.3%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 1–0 15.1%

#4 0–1 11.8%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Argentino Quilmes1.1

Villa San Carlos0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 19.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ARGENTINO QUILMES · PPG 1.27

VILLA SAN CARLOS · PPG 1.13

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.24, combined xG 2.01 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Argentino Quilmes (H) 38.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -17.2%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +1.7%

Villa San Carlos (A) 28.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -4.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Argentino Quilmes face Villa San Carlos in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Argentino Quilmes a 39% chance, the draw 33% and Villa San Carlos 29%, so Argentino Quilmes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Argentino Quilmes and 0.9 for Villa San Carlos (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Argentino Quilmes are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.13 for Villa San Carlos. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +18.3%. This match finished 0-2.

Argentino Quilmes vs Villa San Carlos Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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