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Independiente vs Independ. Rivadavia Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 21:30

Independiente

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Independ. Rivadavia

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+12.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-17.5%0-24.7%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.4%1-111.7%1-27.4%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.1%2-25.7%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.8%3-14.7%3-23.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.6%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 52.6% 1.90 -12.8%

Draw 24.7% 31.3% 3.20 -12.6%

Away win 29.4% 23.1% 4.33 +16.4%

Over 2.5 53.9% 42.6% 2.35 +26.7%

Over 3.5 31.6% 22.2% 4.50 +42.2%

BTTS 54.7% 48.8% 2.05 +12.1%

Home O1.5 45.2% 45.5% 2.20 -0.6%

Away O1.5 37.3% 25.0% 4.00 +49.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 134 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.7%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–0 9.4%

#4 2–0 7.3%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente1.6

Independ. Rivadavia1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE · PPG 1.80

INDEPEND. RIVADAVIA · PPG 1.60

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Independiente (H) 45.9%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -12.8%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.6%

Independ. Rivadavia (A) 29.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +16.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente face Independ. Rivadavia in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Independ. Rivadavia 29%, so Independiente are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Independiente and 1.3 for Independ. Rivadavia (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.60 for Independ. Rivadavia. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +70.6%. This match finished 0-0.

Independiente vs Independ. Rivadavia Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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