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FK Sarajevo vs Sloga Doboj Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Regular Season - 30 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 16:00

FK Sarajevo

PPG 2.43 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Sloga Doboj

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 84.1% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a clear edge.

+14.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-12.1%0-20.3%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.6%1-15.0%1-20.8%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-018.9%2-16.0%2-21.0%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-015.3%3-14.9%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-016.4%4+-15.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 84.1% 73.5% 1.36 +14.4%

Draw 12.5% 26.3% 3.80 -52.5%

Away win 3.4% 10.0% 10.00 -66.0%

Over 2.5 51.6% — — —

Over 3.5 29.5% — — —

BTTS 24.8% 37.0% 2.70 -33.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob24.8%

H 84% / xG 2.4-0.3 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 25%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 18.9%

#2 1–0 15.6%

#3 3–0 15.3%

#4 4–0✓ 9.3%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FK Sarajevo2.4

Sloga Doboj0.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FK SARAJEVO · PPG 2.43

SLOGA DOBOJ · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.43), Away POOR (0.43) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

FK Sarajevo (H) 84.1%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV +14.4%

Draw 12.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -52.5%

Sloga Doboj (A) 3.4%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV -66.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

FK Sarajevo face Sloga Doboj in Bosnia - Premijer Liga on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FK Sarajevo a 84% chance, the draw 13% and Sloga Doboj 3%, so FK Sarajevo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for FK Sarajevo and 0.3 for Sloga Doboj (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 25% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FK Sarajevo are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 0.43 for Sloga Doboj. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.4%. This match finished 4-0.

FK Sarajevo vs Sloga Doboj Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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