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Volta Redonda vs Floresta Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 20:00

Volta Redonda

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Floresta

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.7%0-112.5%0-25.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.7%1-113.3%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.4%2-17.1%2-23.0%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.0%3-12.5%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.5% 54.1% 1.85 -26.9%

Draw 30.9% 33.9% 2.95 -8.8%

Away win 29.6% 22.2% 4.50 +19.9%

Over 2.5 42.7% 37.7% 2.65 +13.2%

Over 3.5 20.6% 20.0% 5.00 +1.8%

BTTS 47.6% 45.5% 2.20 +4.7%

Home O1.5 30.6% 42.6% 2.35 -28.1%

Away O1.5 22.7% 22.2% 4.50 +1.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 116 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -13.0%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.6%

D 31% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.7%

#2 1–0 15.7%

#3 1–1 13.3%

#4 0–1 12.5%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Volta Redonda1.1

Floresta0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VOLTA REDONDA · PPG 1.89

FLORESTA · PPG 1.12

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.22, combined xG 1.92 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Volta Redonda (H) 39.5%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -26.9%

Draw 30.9%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -8.8%

Floresta (A) 29.6%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Volta Redonda face Floresta in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Volta Redonda a 40% chance, the draw 31% and Floresta 30%, so Volta Redonda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Volta Redonda and 0.8 for Floresta (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Volta Redonda are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.12 for Floresta. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +26.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Volta Redonda vs Floresta Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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