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Ituano vs Paysandu Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 20:00

Ituano

PPG 2.12 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Paysandu

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.5 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 50.2% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-16.8%0-22.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.4%1-111.4%1-24.8%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.2%2-19.5%2-24.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.3%3-15.3%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.3%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 48.8% 2.05 +8.4%

Draw 24.5% 30.8% 3.25 -12.2%

Away win 22.6% 30.3% 3.30 -15.3%

Over 2.5 50.2% 51.8% 1.93 -3.1%

Over 3.5 28.9% 29.9% 3.35 -1.9%

BTTS 52.8% 58.8% 1.70 -10.2%

Home O1.5 48.7% 48.8% 2.05 -0.2%

Away O1.5 22.8% 35.1% 2.85 -21.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 116 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -13.0%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.8%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 13.4%

#3 2–0 11.2%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ituano1.7

Paysandu0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ITUANO · PPG 2.12

PAYSANDU · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ituano (H) 52.9%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +8.4%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.2%

Paysandu (A) 22.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -15.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ituano face Paysandu in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ituano a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Paysandu 23%, so Ituano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Ituano and 0.8 for Paysandu (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ituano are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.12 for Paysandu. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Ituano vs Paysandu Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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