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Botafogo PB vs Guarani Campinas Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 20:00

Botafogo PB

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Guarani Campinas

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-16.7%0-24.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.1%1-111.3%1-27.0%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.6%2-19.4%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.3%3-15.3%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.2%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 48.8% 2.05 -4.1%

Draw 24.3% 29.9% 3.35 -11.2%

Away win 28.9% 31.3% 3.20 -4.5%

Over 2.5 59.7% 55.6% 1.80 +7.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 33.3% 3.00 +9.8%

BTTS 60.3% 60.6% 1.65 -0.5%

Home O1.5 48.6% 51.3% 1.95 -5.2%

Away O1.5 37.3% 37.7% 2.65 -1.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 116 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -13.0%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.3%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 1–2 7.0%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Botafogo PB1.7

Guarani Campinas1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BOTAFOGO PB · PPG 2.00

GUARANI CAMPINAS · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Botafogo PB (H) 46.8%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -4.1%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -11.2%

Guarani Campinas (A) 28.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Botafogo PB face Guarani Campinas in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Botafogo PB a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Guarani Campinas 29%, so Botafogo PB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Botafogo PB and 1.2 for Guarani Campinas (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Botafogo PB are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.12 for Guarani Campinas. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +19.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Botafogo PB vs Guarani Campinas Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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