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Gimnasia L.P. vs Gimnasia M. Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 19:00

Gimnasia L.P.

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLW

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Gimnasia M.

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.5% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-17.0%0-22.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.3%1-111.5%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.4%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.4%3-15.1%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 54.3% 1.84 -5.6%

Draw 24.5% 31.7% 3.15 -13.7%

Away win 24.2% 20.8% 4.80 +9.7%

Over 2.5 50.2% 41.7% 2.40 +20.5%

Over 3.5 28.4% 22.2% 4.50 +16.7%

BTTS 51.5% 47.6% 2.10 +8.2%

Home O1.5 47.4% 46.5% 2.15 +1.9%

Away O1.5 22.5% 22.2% 4.50 +0.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 134 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.5%

H 51% / xG 1.6-0.8 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.3%

#2 1–1 11.5%

#3 2–0 11.7%

#4 0–0 8.8%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia L.P.1.6

Gimnasia M.0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA L.P. · PPG 1.90

GIMNASIA M. · PPG 0.60

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia L.P. (H) 51.3%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -5.6%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -13.7%

Gimnasia M. (A) 24.2%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +9.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia L.P. face Gimnasia M. in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia L.P. a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Gimnasia M. 24%, so Gimnasia L.P. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Gimnasia L.P. and 0.8 for Gimnasia M. (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia L.P. are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 0.60 for Gimnasia M.. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.5%. This match finished 2-3.

Gimnasia L.P. vs Gimnasia M. Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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