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Deportivo Armenio vs Real Pilar Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 31 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:30

Deportivo Armenio

PPG 1.87 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Real Pilar

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-110.7%0-25.6%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.8%1-113.2%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.9%2-18.1%2-24.2%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.2%3-13.3%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.8% 43.5% 2.30 -6.2%

Draw 29.0% 33.3% 3.00 -7.8%

Away win 30.2% 33.3% 3.00 -9.4%

Over 2.5 44.5% 40.8% 2.45 +9.0%

Over 3.5 25.6% 22.2% 4.50 +9.1%

BTTS 49.1% 50.0% 2.00 -1.8%

Home O1.5 33.4% 38.5% 2.60 -13.2%

Away O1.5 32.4% 30.8% 3.25 +5.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.1%

H 41% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 0–0 10.4%

#4 0–1✓ 10.7%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Armenio1.2

Real Pilar1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO ARMENIO · PPG 1.87

REAL PILAR · PPG 1.53

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.20, combined xG 2.27 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Armenio (H) 40.8%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -6.2%

Draw 29.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.8%

Real Pilar (A) 30.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Armenio face Real Pilar in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Armenio a 41% chance, the draw 29% and Real Pilar 30%, so Deportivo Armenio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Deportivo Armenio and 1.0 for Real Pilar (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Armenio are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.53 for Real Pilar. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +41.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Deportivo Armenio vs Real Pilar Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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