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Ituzaingó vs Deportivo Merlo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 31 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:00

Ituzaingó

PPG 0.60 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Deportivo Merlo

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-112.8%0-28.5%0-33.8%0-4+1.7%1 1-09.7%1-112.9%1-28.6%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-04.9%2-16.5%2-24.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.7%3-12.2%3-21.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.6% 26.7% 3.75 +26.0%

Draw 28.2% 35.7% 2.80 -12.6%

Away win 38.3% 48.8% 2.05 -21.5%

Over 2.5 44.8% 40.0% 2.50 +12.0%

Over 3.5 26.8% 22.2% 4.50 +12.4%

BTTS 49.1% 47.6% 2.10 +3.1%

Home O1.5 30.6% 26.7% 3.75 +14.8%

Away O1.5 41.2% 38.2% 2.62 +7.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob49.1%

D 28% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0✓ 9.7%

#3 1–0 9.7%

#4 0–1 12.8%

#5 2–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ituzaingó1.0

Deportivo Merlo1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ITUZAINGÓ · PPG 0.60

DEPORTIVO MERLO · PPG 1.07

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.32, combined xG 2.34 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ituzaingó (H) 33.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +26.0%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -12.6%

Deportivo Merlo (A) 38.3%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -21.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ituzaingó face Deportivo Merlo in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ituzaingó a 34% chance, the draw 28% and Deportivo Merlo 38%, so Deportivo Merlo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Ituzaingó and 1.3 for Deportivo Merlo (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ituzaingó are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 1.07 for Deportivo Merlo. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +31.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Ituzaingó vs Deportivo Merlo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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