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Defensores Unidos vs San Martín Burzaco Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 31 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:00

Defensores Unidos

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

San Martín Burzaco

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.3%0-113.9%0-26.8%0-32.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.8%1-113.5%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.7%2-16.6%2-23.2%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.2%3-12.1%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 34.5% 2.90 +1.2%

Draw 30.6% 37.0% 2.70 -17.4%

Away win 34.5% 40.0% 2.50 -13.8%

Over 2.5 42.7% 40.0% 2.50 +6.8%

Over 3.5 20.6% 22.2% 4.50 -4.4%

BTTS 47.6% 47.6% 2.10 -0.0%

Home O1.5 30.6% 33.3% 3.00 -8.2%

Away O1.5 27.9% 30.8% 3.25 -5.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.6%

D 31% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.3%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 13.8%

#4 0–1 13.9%

#5 2–0✓ 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensores Unidos1.0

San Martín Burzaco1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSORES UNIDOS · PPG 1.47

SAN MARTÍN BURZACO · PPG 1.53

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.01, combined xG 1.95 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Defensores Unidos (H) 34.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +1.2%

Draw 30.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -17.4%

San Martín Burzaco (A) 34.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensores Unidos face San Martín Burzaco in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensores Unidos a 35% chance, the draw 31% and San Martín Burzaco 35%, so Defensores Unidos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Defensores Unidos and 1.0 for San Martín Burzaco (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensores Unidos are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.53 for San Martín Burzaco. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Defensores Unidos vs San Martín Burzaco Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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