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Argentino de Merlo vs Arsenal Sarandi Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 31 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:00

Argentino de Merlo

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Arsenal Sarandi

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.1%0-116.3%0-28.8%0-33.1%0-4+1.1%1 1-012.3%1-113.2%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-05.0%2-15.4%2-22.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.4%3-11.5%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.5% 30.3% 3.30 +0.7%

Draw 32.4% 36.4% 2.75 -10.9%

Away win 37.1% 44.4% 2.25 -16.5%

Over 2.5 41.5% 42.6% 2.35 -2.5%

Over 3.5 20.6% 23.1% 4.33 -6.5%

BTTS 47.6% 46.5% 2.15 +2.3%

Home O1.5 30.6% 28.6% 3.50 +7.1%

Away O1.5 34.9% 40.0% 2.50 -12.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob47.6%

D 32% / xG 0.8-1.1 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 15.1%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 0–1 16.3%

#4 1–0 12.3%

#5 0–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Argentino de Merlo0.8

Arsenal Sarandi1.1

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.5% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ARGENTINO DE MERLO · PPG 1.33

ARSENAL SARANDI · PPG 1.67

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.26, combined xG 1.89 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Argentino de Merlo (H) 30.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +0.7%

Draw 32.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -10.9%

Arsenal Sarandi (A) 37.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -16.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Argentino de Merlo face Arsenal Sarandi in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Argentino de Merlo a 31% chance, the draw 32% and Arsenal Sarandi 37%, so Arsenal Sarandi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Argentino de Merlo and 1.1 for Arsenal Sarandi (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Argentino de Merlo are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.67 for Arsenal Sarandi. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +7.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Argentino de Merlo vs Arsenal Sarandi Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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