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Al Ain vs Khorfakkan Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 16:35

Al Ain

PPG 2.18 · HOME

LAST 5

WWW ··

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Khorfakkan

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLW ··

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 67.4% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-12.2%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.5%1-16.2%1-23.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.1%2-18.7%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.6%3-18.2%3-23.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-011.9%4+-111.4%4+-25.4%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.6% 82.0% 1.22 -16.3%

Draw 16.4% 18.5% 5.40 -6.9%

Away win 15.0% 8.3% 12.00 +48.0%

Over 2.5 64.6% 69.0% 1.45 -6.3%

Over 3.5 43.5% 47.6% 2.10 -8.6%

BTTS 54.7% 54.6% 1.83 +0.1%

Home O1.5 67.4% 78.1% 1.28 -13.7%

Away O1.5 25.7% 20.0% 5.00 +17.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.7%

H 69% / xG 2.8-1.0 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 9.1%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 3–0 8.6%

#4 3–1 8.2%

#5 1–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Ain2.8

Khorfakkan1.0

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AL AIN · PPG 2.18

KHORFAKKAN · PPG 1.27

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.85 for Home, form 2.18 vs 1.27 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Al Ain (H) 68.6%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -16.3%

Draw 16.4%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -6.9%

Khorfakkan (A) 15.0%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +48.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ain face Khorfakkan in United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ain a 69% chance, the draw 16% and Khorfakkan 15%, so Al Ain are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Al Ain and 1.0 for Khorfakkan (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ain are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 1.27 for Khorfakkan. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +45.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Al Ain vs Khorfakkan Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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