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Posusje vs R. Bijeljina Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Regular Season - 30 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 14:00

Posusje

PPG 1.36 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

R. Bijeljina

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.2% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.6%0-18.0%0-22.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.2%1-111.2%1-23.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.5%2-17.9%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.3%3-13.7%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-11.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.2% 54.1% 1.85 +5.8%

Draw 27.4% 33.3% 3.00 -17.8%

Away win 15.4% 24.4% 4.10 -36.9%

Over 2.5 32.2% 43.5% 2.30 -25.9%

Over 3.5 14.2% — — —

BTTS 33.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob33.5%

H 57% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.2%

#2 0–0 13.6%

#3 2–0 13.5%

#4 1–1✓ 11.2%

#5 0–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Posusje1.4

R. Bijeljina0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.2% · O3.5 PROB 14.2%

Form & verdict PPG

POSUSJE · PPG 1.36

R. BIJELJINA · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.36) vs P(Home)=57.2%

Win probability 1X2

Posusje (H) 57.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +5.8%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -17.8%

R. Bijeljina (A) 15.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -36.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Posusje face R. Bijeljina in Bosnia - Premijer Liga on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Posusje a 57% chance, the draw 27% and R. Bijeljina 15%, so Posusje are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Posusje and 0.6 for R. Bijeljina (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Posusje are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 0.50 for R. Bijeljina. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Posusje vs R. Bijeljina Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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