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Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Dhafra Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

PPG 2.03 · HOME

LAST 5

WWW ··

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Al-Dhafra

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLL ··

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.4% vs bookmaker-implied 80.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-12.0%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.2%1-15.8%1-22.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.3%2-18.4%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.9%3-18.1%3-23.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-014.6%4+-111.8%4+-24.8%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.7% 80.0% 1.25 -7.9%

Draw 17.5% 20.0% 5.00 -7.5%

Away win 8.8% 11.8% 8.50 -15.1%

Over 2.5 63.1% 71.4% 1.40 -11.7%

Over 3.5 43.5% 52.6% 1.90 -17.3%

BTTS 53.0% 61.7% 1.62 -14.1%

Home O1.5 78.4% 80.6% 1.24 -2.8%

Away O1.5 22.5% 26.0% 3.84 -8.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.0%

H 74% / xG 2.9-0.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 10.3%

#2 3–0 9.9%

#3 1–1 5.8%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 3–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai2.9

Al-Dhafra0.8

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SHABAB AL AHLI DUBAI · PPG 2.03

AL-DHAFRA · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.08 for Home, form 2.03 vs 0.88 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (H) 73.7%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -7.9%

Draw 17.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -7.5%

Al-Dhafra (A) 8.8%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV -15.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai face Al-Dhafra in United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 74% chance, the draw 18% and Al-Dhafra 9%, so Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 0.8 for Al-Dhafra (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 2.03 points per game versus 0.88 for Al-Dhafra. This match finished 2-0.

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Dhafra Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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