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Leicesterford vs Lerumo Lions Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Regular Season - 26 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 13:00

Leicesterford

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Lerumo Lions

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 38.2% — a clear edge.

+42.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-17.0%0-23.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.4%1-111.6%1-25.4%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.6%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.7%3-15.3%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.5% 38.2% 2.62 +42.8%

Draw 24.4% 33.3% 3.00 -26.8%

Away win 21.1% 40.0% 2.50 -47.3%

Over 2.5 48.2% — — —

Over 3.5 26.4% — — —

BTTS 49.3% 51.3% 1.95 -3.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 19.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.3%

H 55% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 12.4%

#2 1–1 11.6%

#3 2–0 10.3%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0✓ 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leicesterford1.7

Lerumo Lions0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.2% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LEICESTERFORD · PPG 2.00

LERUMO LIONS · PPG 1.08

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=54.5%

Win probability 1X2

Leicesterford (H) 54.5%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +42.8%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -26.8%

Lerumo Lions (A) 21.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -47.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leicesterford face Lerumo Lions in South-Africa - 1st Division on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leicesterford a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Lerumo Lions 21%, so Leicesterford are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Leicesterford and 0.9 for Lerumo Lions (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leicesterford are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.08 for Lerumo Lions. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +42.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Leicesterford vs Lerumo Lions Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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