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Southampton vs Stoke City Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Southampton

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWD ·

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Stoke City

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.2% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-16.8%0-23.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.6%1-111.5%1-25.7%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.8%2-19.7%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.5%3-15.5%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.4%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% 61.3% 1.63 -20.0%

Draw 26.7% 25.3% 3.95 +3.3%

Away win 24.2% 20.4% 4.90 +11.2%

Over 2.5 50.2% 59.9% 1.67 -16.2%

Over 3.5 28.9% 37.0% 2.70 -13.2%

BTTS 52.2% 58.8% 1.70 -11.3%

Home O1.5 48.8% 61.7% 1.62 -20.9%

Away O1.5 29.6% 30.8% 3.25 -2.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.2%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–0 11.6%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Southampton1.7

Stoke City1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTHAMPTON · PPG 1.80

STOKE CITY · PPG 1.15

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Southampton (H) 49.1%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV -20.0%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +3.3%

Stoke City (A) 24.2%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Southampton face Stoke City in England - Championship on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Southampton a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Stoke City 24%, so Southampton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Southampton and 1.0 for Stoke City (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Southampton are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.15 for Stoke City. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +3.5%. This match finished 3-1.

Southampton vs Stoke City Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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