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Blackburn vs Middlesbrough Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Blackburn

PPG 1.12 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLD ·

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Middlesbrough

PPG 1.51 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-110.5%0-27.1%0-33.2%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.3%1-112.6%1-28.6%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.6%2-17.6%2-25.1%2-32.3%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.2%3-13.0%3-22.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 30.3% 3.30 +15.2%

Draw 28.0% 29.9% 3.35 -3.7%

Away win 37.1% 47.2% 2.12 -21.3%

Over 2.5 50.1% 50.0% 2.00 +0.2%

Over 3.5 28.2% 28.2% 3.55 +0.1%

BTTS 53.0% 55.6% 1.80 -4.6%

Home O1.5 32.4% 33.9% 2.95 -4.4%

Away O1.5 41.2% 46.5% 2.15 -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob53.0%

D 28% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.8%

#3 2–1✓ 7.6%

#4 0–1 10.5%

#5 1–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Blackburn1.2

Middlesbrough1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BLACKBURN · PPG 1.12

MIDDLESBROUGH · PPG 1.51

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Blackburn (H) 34.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +15.2%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -3.7%

Middlesbrough (A) 37.1%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -21.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Blackburn face Middlesbrough in England - Championship on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Blackburn a 35% chance, the draw 28% and Middlesbrough 37%, so Middlesbrough are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Blackburn and 1.4 for Middlesbrough (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Blackburn are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 1.51 for Middlesbrough. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +20.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Blackburn vs Middlesbrough Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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