Today / South-Africa - 1st Division / Baroka vs Gomora United

Baroka vs Gomora United Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Regular Season - 26 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 13:00

Baroka

PPG 1.17 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Gomora United

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-110.0%0-24.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.1%1-112.9%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.8%2-18.3%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.2%3-13.6%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 40.8% 2.45 +14.4%

Draw 28.6% 35.7% 2.80 -19.9%

Away win 24.7% 34.7% 2.88 -28.9%

Over 2.5 36.3% — — —

Over 3.5 17.0% — — —

BTTS 41.7% 47.6% 2.10 -12.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 19.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob41.7%

H 47% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.1%

#2 1–1✓ 12.9%

#3 0–0 11.7%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 2–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Baroka1.3

Gomora United0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 17.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BAROKA · PPG 1.17

GOMORA UNITED · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Baroka (H) 46.7%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +14.4%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -19.9%

Gomora United (A) 24.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -28.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Baroka face Gomora United in South-Africa - 1st Division on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Baroka a 47% chance, the draw 29% and Gomora United 25%, so Baroka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Baroka and 0.9 for Gomora United (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Baroka are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.75 for Gomora United. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Baroka vs Gomora United Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More South-Africa - 1st Division Predictions