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Trollhättan vs Trelleborg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Trollhättan

PPG 0.56 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Trelleborg

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-19.9%0-210.7%0-37.7%0-4+6.9%1 1-04.2%1-19.1%1-29.9%1-37.1%1-4+6.3%2 2-02.0%2-14.2%2-24.6%2-33.3%2-4+2.9%3 3-00.6%3-11.3%3-21.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.3% 23.8% 4.20 -1.3%

Draw 21.3% 26.7% 3.75 -12.1%

Away win 55.4% 59.5% 1.68 -6.9%

Over 2.5 59.7% 58.8% 1.70 +1.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 36.4% 2.75 +0.7%

BTTS 54.7% 59.9% 1.67 -8.6%

Home O1.5 30.6% 33.3% 3.00 -8.2%

Away O1.5 57.7% 59.9% 1.67 -3.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -0.4%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob54.7%

A 55% / xG 0.9-2.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 0–2 10.7%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 2–1✓ 4.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trollhättan0.9

Trelleborg2.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TROLLHÄTTAN · PPG 0.56

TRELLEBORG · PPG 2.50

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.24 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Trollhättan (H) 23.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -1.3%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -12.1%

Trelleborg (A) 55.4%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trollhättan face Trelleborg in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trollhättan a 23% chance, the draw 21% and Trelleborg 55%, so Trelleborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Trollhättan and 2.2 for Trelleborg (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trollhättan are averaging 0.56 points per game versus 2.50 for Trelleborg. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Trollhättan vs Trelleborg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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