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Jonkopings Sodra vs Rosengård Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Jonkopings Sodra

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDW

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Rosengård

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-18.4%0-24.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.5%1-112.4%1-26.7%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.1%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.2%3-14.5%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 45.5% 2.20 -0.6%

Draw 25.8% 29.9% 3.35 -8.1%

Away win 29.0% 34.7% 2.88 -9.9%

Over 2.5 52.2% 55.6% 1.80 -6.0%

Over 3.5 30.9% 33.3% 3.00 -7.3%

BTTS 54.7% 61.7% 1.62 -11.4%

Home O1.5 40.0% 48.8% 2.05 -18.0%

Away O1.5 35.0% 40.8% 2.45 -14.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -0.4%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 11.5%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 2–0 8.5%

#5 0–0✓ 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jonkopings Sodra1.5

Rosengård1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

JONKOPINGS SODRA · PPG 2.38

ROSENGÅRD · PPG 1.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.40 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jonkopings Sodra (H) 45.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -0.6%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -8.1%

Rosengård (A) 29.0%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -9.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jonkopings Sodra face Rosengård in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Rosengård 29%, so Jonkopings Sodra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Jonkopings Sodra and 1.1 for Rosengård (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jonkopings Sodra are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.78 for Rosengård. This match finished 0-0.

Jonkopings Sodra vs Rosengård Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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