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Atvidabergs FF vs Angelholms FF Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Atvidabergs FF

PPG 2.22 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWL

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Angelholms FF

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-14.2%0-22.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.7%1-19.1%1-25.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.2%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.9%3-17.0%3-24.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-16.2%4+-23.7%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 59.5% 1.68 -10.3%

Draw 22.7% 27.0% 3.70 -9.6%

Away win 23.9% 23.1% 4.33 +2.1%

Over 2.5 62.6% 58.8% 1.70 +6.4%

Over 3.5 39.4% 36.4% 2.75 +8.3%

BTTS 60.9% 60.6% 1.65 +0.5%

Home O1.5 60.8% 59.9% 1.67 +1.5%

Away O1.5 36.0% 33.3% 3.00 +8.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -0.4%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.9%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 1–2 5.4%

#5 3–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atvidabergs FF2.1

Angelholms FF1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ATVIDABERGS FF · PPG 2.22

ANGELHOLMS FF · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atvidabergs FF (H) 53.4%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -10.3%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -9.6%

Angelholms FF (A) 23.9%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +2.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atvidabergs FF face Angelholms FF in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atvidabergs FF a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Angelholms FF 24%, so Atvidabergs FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Atvidabergs FF and 1.2 for Angelholms FF (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atvidabergs FF are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 1.12 for Angelholms FF. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +13.5%. This match finished 4-1.

Atvidabergs FF vs Angelholms FF Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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