Today / Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland / Dalstorps vs Hestrafor

Dalstorps vs Hestrafor Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

Dalstorps

PPG 2.22 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Hestrafor

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-13.3%0-22.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-05.6%1-17.8%1-25.5%1-32.6%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.5%2-19.1%2-26.4%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.0%3-17.1%3-25.0%3-32.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-17.1%4+-25.0%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 54.6% 1.83 -3.4%

Draw 22.4% 25.3% 3.95 -6.9%

Away win 24.8% 29.9% 3.35 -10.2%

Over 2.5 67.3% 70.4% 1.42 -4.4%

Over 3.5 43.5% 48.8% 2.05 -10.8%

BTTS 63.2% 71.4% 1.40 -11.5%

Home O1.5 65.1% 64.5% 1.55 +0.9%

Away O1.5 41.2% 46.5% 2.15 -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 47.0%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.2%

H 53% / xG 2.3-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.8%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 2–2✓ 6.4%

#4 3–1 7.1%

#5 1–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dalstorps2.3

Hestrafor1.4

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DALSTORPS · PPG 2.22

HESTRAFOR · PPG 1.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.93 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Dalstorps (H) 52.8%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -3.4%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -6.9%

Hestrafor (A) 24.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dalstorps face Hestrafor in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dalstorps a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Hestrafor 25%, so Dalstorps are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Dalstorps and 1.4 for Hestrafor (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dalstorps are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 1.89 for Hestrafor. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +0.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Dalstorps vs Hestrafor Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland Predictions