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Millwall vs Norwich Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:30

Millwall

PPG 1.66 · HOME

LAST 5

WWL ··

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Norwich

PPG 1.51 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 50.1% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-17.5%0-23.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.0%1-111.9%1-25.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.5%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.0%3-15.0%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.8%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 45.5% 2.20 +9.1%

Draw 26.7% 29.9% 3.35 -6.3%

Away win 23.6% 31.7% 3.15 -15.4%

Over 2.5 50.1% 51.8% 1.93 -3.3%

Over 3.5 28.2% 30.3% 3.30 -4.2%

BTTS 49.1% 57.8% 1.73 -15.1%

Home O1.5 47.4% 47.6% 2.10 -0.5%

Away O1.5 30.2% 36.4% 2.75 -17.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.1%

H 50% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Millwall1.6

Norwich1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MILLWALL · PPG 1.66

NORWICH · PPG 1.51

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.59 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Millwall (H) 49.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +9.1%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -6.3%

Norwich (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Millwall face Norwich in England - Championship on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Millwall a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Norwich 24%, so Millwall are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Millwall and 1.0 for Norwich (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Millwall are averaging 1.66 points per game versus 1.51 for Norwich. This match finished 3-0.

Millwall vs Norwich Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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