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Birmingham vs Bristol City Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:30

Birmingham

PPG 1.77 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWD ·

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Bristol City

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWW ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-19.0%0-23.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.5%1-112.6%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.1%2-18.8%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.7%3-14.1%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 54.3% 1.84 -16.5%

Draw 31.9% 28.2% 3.55 +13.2%

Away win 22.7% 24.4% 4.10 -4.2%

Over 2.5 42.7% 55.6% 1.80 -23.1%

Over 3.5 23.4% 33.9% 2.95 -18.6%

BTTS 47.6% 58.8% 1.70 -19.1%

Home O1.5 39.7% 55.6% 1.80 -28.5%

Away O1.5 22.8% 33.3% 3.00 -19.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.6%

H 45% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 10.3%

#3 1–0 14.5%

#4 2–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Birmingham1.4

Bristol City0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 23.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BIRMINGHAM · PPG 1.77

BRISTOL CITY · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Birmingham (H) 45.4%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -16.5%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +13.2%

Bristol City (A) 22.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Birmingham face Bristol City in England - Championship on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Birmingham a 45% chance, the draw 32% and Bristol City 23%, so Birmingham are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Birmingham and 0.9 for Bristol City (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Birmingham are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.40 for Bristol City. This match finished 2-2.

Birmingham vs Bristol City Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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