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Utsikten vs Eskilsminne Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:30

Utsikten

PPG 0.12 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDDL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Eskilsminne

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDL

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 65.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-17.9%0-29.2%0-37.2%0-4+7.3%1 1-03.5%1-18.3%1-29.7%1-37.6%1-4+7.6%2 2-01.9%2-14.4%2-25.1%2-34.0%2-4+4.0%3 3-00.7%3-11.5%3-21.8%3-31.4%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.1% 22.7% 4.40 -17.5%

Draw 22.6% 25.3% 3.95 -6.4%

Away win 61.3% 61.7% 1.62 -0.7%

Over 2.5 63.1% 65.4% 1.53 -3.5%

Over 3.5 39.4% 42.6% 2.35 -7.4%

BTTS 60.3% 65.4% 1.53 -7.7%

Home O1.5 30.6% 35.7% 2.80 -14.3%

Away O1.5 65.4% 65.4% 1.53 +0.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -0.4%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob60.3%

A 61% / xG 1.1-2.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 9.2%

#4 1–3 7.6%

#5 0–3 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Utsikten1.1

Eskilsminne2.3

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

UTSIKTEN · PPG 0.12

ESKILSMINNE · PPG 1.12

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.28 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Utsikten (H) 16.1%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -17.5%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -6.4%

Eskilsminne (A) 61.3%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Utsikten face Eskilsminne in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Utsikten a 16% chance, the draw 23% and Eskilsminne 61%, so Eskilsminne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Utsikten and 2.3 for Eskilsminne (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Utsikten are averaging 0.12 points per game versus 1.12 for Eskilsminne. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +0.1%. This match finished 2-2.

Utsikten vs Eskilsminne Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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