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Olympic vs Tvååker Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:00

Olympic

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDLL

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Tvååker

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-16.0%0-24.1%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.9%1-110.6%1-27.1%1-33.2%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.9%2-19.3%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.1%3-15.5%3-23.7%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.6%4+-22.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.2% 57.8% 1.73 -18.3%

Draw 23.7% 25.3% 3.95 -3.8%

Away win 29.2% 27.0% 3.70 +4.8%

Over 2.5 62.0% 69.0% 1.45 -10.1%

Over 3.5 38.0% 46.5% 2.15 -18.3%

BTTS 61.3% 69.4% 1.44 -11.7%

Home O1.5 48.8% 65.4% 1.53 -25.3%

Away O1.5 41.2% 42.6% 2.35 -3.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -0.4%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.3%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–0 6.9%

#5 1–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olympic1.8

Tvååker1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 38.0%

Form & verdict PPG

OLYMPIC · PPG 1.78

TVÅÅKER · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Olympic (H) 47.2%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -18.3%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -3.8%

Tvååker (A) 29.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Olympic face Tvååker in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olympic a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Tvååker 29%, so Olympic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Olympic and 1.3 for Tvååker (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olympic are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.38 for Tvååker. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +6.1%. This match finished 3-4.

Olympic vs Tvååker Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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