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Yokohama F. Marinos vs Vissel Kobe Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 10:30

Yokohama F. Marinos

PPG 1.03 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWL ·

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Vissel Kobe

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+10.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-17.6%0-25.9%0-33.1%0-4+1.7%1 1-07.2%1-111.1%1-28.6%1-34.5%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.3%2-18.1%2-26.3%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.6%3-14.0%3-23.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.0%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 29.0% 3.45 +25.6%

Draw 25.3% 29.9% 3.35 -9.2%

Away win 38.3% 47.6% 2.10 -19.6%

Over 2.5 58.6% 48.8% 2.05 +20.1%

Over 3.5 36.4% 26.7% 3.75 +36.5%

BTTS 60.3% 54.6% 1.83 +10.3%

Home O1.5 40.0% 32.3% 3.10 +24.0%

Away O1.5 48.5% 46.5% 2.15 +4.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob60.3%

A 38% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 8.1%

#3 1–2 8.6%

#4 0–0 4.9%

#5 0–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yokohama F. Marinos1.5

Vissel Kobe1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

YOKOHAMA F. MARINOS · PPG 1.03

VISSEL KOBE · PPG 1.64

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Yokohama F. Marinos (H) 36.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +25.6%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -9.2%

Vissel Kobe (A) 38.3%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -19.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yokohama F. Marinos face Vissel Kobe in Japan - J1 League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yokohama F. Marinos a 36% chance, the draw 25% and Vissel Kobe 38%, so Vissel Kobe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Yokohama F. Marinos and 1.6 for Vissel Kobe (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yokohama F. Marinos are averaging 1.03 points per game versus 1.64 for Vissel Kobe. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +36.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Yokohama F. Marinos vs Vissel Kobe Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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