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Bucheon FC 1995 vs Pohang Steelers Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 10:30

Bucheon FC 1995

PPG 0.92 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLD

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Pohang Steelers

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-114.0%0-28.4%0-33.3%0-4+1.3%1 1-011.1%1-113.3%1-27.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.3%2-16.3%2-23.8%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.7%3-12.0%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 33.9% 2.95 +5.9%

Draw 27.7% 32.3% 3.10 -8.5%

Away win 36.4% 40.0% 2.50 -9.0%

Over 2.5 44.8% 42.6% 2.35 +5.3%

Over 3.5 25.6% 22.2% 4.50 +9.1%

BTTS 49.1% 51.3% 1.95 -4.3%

Home O1.5 30.6% 33.3% 3.00 -8.2%

Away O1.5 36.7% 37.0% 2.70 -0.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -23.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.1%

A 36% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 1–0 11.1%

#3 0–0 11.7%

#4 0–1 14.0%

#5 2–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bucheon FC 19950.9

Pohang Steelers1.2

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BUCHEON FC 1995 · PPG 0.92

POHANG STEELERS · PPG 1.67

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.25, combined xG 2.14 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bucheon FC 1995 (H) 35.9%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +5.9%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.5%

Pohang Steelers (A) 36.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bucheon FC 1995 face Pohang Steelers in South Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bucheon FC 1995 a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Pohang Steelers 36%, so Pohang Steelers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Bucheon FC 1995 and 1.2 for Pohang Steelers (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bucheon FC 1995 are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 1.67 for Pohang Steelers. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.1%. This match finished 3-0.

Bucheon FC 1995 vs Pohang Steelers Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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