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Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 10:30

Jeonbuk Motors

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Ulsan Hyundai FC

PPG 1.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-18.7%0-26.2%0-32.9%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.4%1-111.9%1-28.5%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.8%2-18.2%2-25.8%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.7%3-13.8%3-22.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.8% 50.0% 2.00 -30.4%

Draw 24.2% 27.8% 3.60 -7.7%

Away win 41.0% 29.0% 3.45 +41.4%

Over 2.5 57.6% 58.8% 1.70 -2.1%

Over 3.5 35.6% 36.4% 2.75 -2.1%

BTTS 60.2% 63.7% 1.57 -5.5%

Home O1.5 37.8% 54.1% 1.85 -30.1%

Away O1.5 41.2% 38.5% 2.60 +7.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -23.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.2%

A 41% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 0–1 8.7%

#5 0–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jeonbuk Motors1.4

Ulsan Hyundai FC1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.6% · O3.5 PROB 35.6%

Form & verdict PPG

JEONBUK MOTORS · PPG 1.55

ULSAN HYUNDAI FC · PPG 1.91

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.04 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jeonbuk Motors (H) 34.8%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -30.4%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.7%

Ulsan Hyundai FC (A) 41.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +41.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jeonbuk Motors face Ulsan Hyundai FC in South Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Ulsan Hyundai FC 41%, so Ulsan Hyundai FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.4 for Ulsan Hyundai FC (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.91 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +15.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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